Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. Nicola Sturgeon Expected To Resign As Scottish First Minister Today But Why? Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". conservative party Labour Party Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Topic . Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. Explore what the world thinks, discover our solutions, and join our community to share your opinion. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Easy-to-digest video clips. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Britain Elects. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Scotlands Political Landscape After Nicola Sturgeon? The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. Savanta (23 February) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The poll for the Sun found. Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. However support for Scottish independence grew significantly during the 1980s, particularly as Margaret Thatchers tenure in office continued. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. Although these recommendations are yet to be finalized, the next General Election will almost certainly be fought on a redrawn constituency map. The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? Easy-to-digest video clips. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. Trump. Last updated Feb 28, 2023 View all Articles (514) Voting Intention: Con 23%, Labour 46% politics 1 day ago Trackers Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. But we can't do it without you. Support for the SNP, for Nicola Sturgeon and for Scottish independence has fallen sharply as the partys crisis over transgender rights deepens. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". The YouGov polling for The Times also suggests widespread public dissatisfaction with the government's economic plan. READ MORE: Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action. It was one of the biggest news stories of our. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. Please check you have typed it correctly. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . In all polls the dont knows are removed. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. 4th October 2022| This time 12 months ago, the Conservative party was still just ahead in the polls. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Champion Newspapers Limited 20:21 22-Feb-23. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. Sustainable shooting key to governments nature recovery plans, Press release: Shootings role outlined to the new Welsh parliament, Liz Truss says she would use nuclear warfare, Hidden history: The Nazi-Soviet pact which Russia now tries to deny, The bigotry of Ukip is swamping the Conservative party, Very quietly, the coalition tries to dismantle judicial review, Comment: Anti-porn laws allow police to target those they don't like, Ambulance unions approached for pay talks after GMB tightens derogations, Reticulated giraffe heads to London Zoo before big breeding programme move, IRC Statement on IDC Report into UK Aid spend by the Home Office, Corporation tax is the tool to incentivise net zero, Trees: most accurate data yet shows glaring disparity in tree cover across England. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. State of the Nation. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. A poll of more than 1,000 people . Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Question asked is stated in notes field. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. Journalism in Britain is under threat. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. YouGov Westminster voting intention If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r